But what are the chances that they will realise this maximum return? It is a community, for experts in all industries. An expert might also raise the discount rate for certain companies in certain situations. Here are some key gains: provides you with an average outcome of all the uncertain events that have been identified. According to the PMBOK Expected monetary value analysis is a statistical concept that calculates the average outcomes when the future includes the scenarios that may or may not happen. A lot of PMP aspirants find this concept difficult to understand. A risk probability and impact matrix may help you determine how significant or likely a risk is. Disadvantages The probabilities used are usually very subjective. It helps to calculate the contingency reserve of the project and forces the project manager to make cost savings during the execution. No-code required. At this point we have to consider the probability of each outcome. | See the answer 5.As . I have been trying to calculate EMV for a while now and this is the best explanation I have found. Its a good, straightforward technique and if you have the data, why not use it? Below are the steps to be followed to calculate the EMV of a circumstance. | Project Management Academy, PMA, the most trusted name in project management training, and Senior Certified Project Manager are registered marks of Educate 360, LLC. At the end of it, you get a decision tree that summarizes the financial impact of following a course of action. Probability in this case is the likelihood of the occurrence of any event. Expected You are working with the project manager for a construction project. The restaurant has a lot more risk. The Swirl logo is a trade mark of AXELOS Limited, used under permission of AXELOS Limited. It is a statistical technique that is used to convert the risk into a number and supports the project manager to determine the contingency reserve. There is no need to consider the characteristics of the population when determining sample sizes, such as the standard deviation Using expected monetary value allows you to calculate the profit and loss of an activity, whether thats a whole project, or part of a project, taking into account different scenarios. You might be asking yourself why you need to know about EMV. Those inaccuracies can in turn result in an incorrect value as determined by the discounted cash flow analysis. In this scenario, the project manager should add $49,000 to the project budget to manage those risks. Net gain: The value to be gained from taking a decision. As its main benefit, a discounted cash flow analysis uses financial numbers that are based in reality: cash flow generated by the business. Improve efficiency and patient experiences. This problem has been solved! This problem has been solved! Since some of the benefits and costs are non-monetary, it becomes difficult to estimate, quantify, and identify them in monetary terms. PMP credential holders can use decision tree analysis to compare choices and make the best decision when managing or preparing for a project. The analysis tries to ascertain the current value of projected future earnings. If it works, your project will net $15,000. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. This will cause a delay in the project for 3 weeks and cost 100,000 USD. This will enable you to complete the project 3 weeks before and save up $10,000. What are the advantages and disadvantages of using expected monetary value (EMV) as compared to the return-to-risk ratio (RTRR)? The opinions of experts are what mainly counts. Empower your people to go above and beyond with a flexible platform designed to match the needs of your team and adapt as those needs change. MUS advantages include the following: It is easier to apply than classical variables sampling. There is a model to figure out ad spend, cost to acquire a customer, and average value of that customer over time. The information is reduced to a single number resulting in easier decisions. The possibility of an outcome by its likelihood of occurrence are the determinants in this topic. What are the advantages and disadvantages of using expected monetary value (EMV) as compared to the return-to-risk ratio (RTRR)? Usually, expected money value is not applied in either small or small-medium-sized projects. As a risk management tool, Expected monetary value (EMV) helps to quantify and compare risks in many aspects of the project. 2.Works on factual reasoning. It helps with risk assessment. Align campaigns, creative operations, and more. PMI, the PMI logo, REP logo, PMP, PMBOK, OPM3 and CAPM are registered marks of The Project Management Institute, Inc. DSDM, Atern, and AgilePM are Registered Trade Marks of Agile Business Consortium Limited. Deliver project consistency and visibility at scale. For example: Project risk 1: There is a 30% possibility of heavy rains. | See the answer Calculations are relatively simple. We hope this guide was helpful to your understanding of EMV analysis for the PMP Exam. Net gain: The value to be gained from taking a decision. The table below shows the options under consideration by the farm team. WebExpert Answer. As you can see, it is an easy formula which is definitely an advantage for your risk assessments. Organize, manage, and review content production. Its better than a coin flip when it comes to decision making! You may see one or more than one question in the exam. All rights reserved. In this particular case, they need to decide whether to: Each of these options carries both a cost and a level of uncertainty around the impact of each option. Moreover, the reliability of the analysis is dependent on all the data provided, which acts as the input to the EMV technique. This can lead to wrong evaluations. It is easy to explain to stakeholders. The EMV technique functions well in situations where there are large number of risks. Learn why customers choose Smartsheet to empower teams to rapidly build no-code solutions, align across the entire enterprise, and move with agility to launch everyones best ideas at scale. There are several possible outcomes depending on which of the two options the team decides to follow. Now, Udemy offers over 200,000 online courses taught by more than 70,000 How To Find The Right MBA Program That Will Help You Advance Your Career. As a risk management tool, the Expected Monetary Value can be used in projects to quantify and compare risks.if(typeof ez_ad_units!='undefined'){ez_ad_units.push([[728,90],'projectpractical_com-medrectangle-3','ezslot_3',627,'0','0'])};__ez_fad_position('div-gpt-ad-projectpractical_com-medrectangle-3-0'); EMV is an estimated figure that shows how much money a complainant can practically expect in arbitration. The tool costs $10,000 and has a 70% chance of working. Make sure to check your answers at the bottom of the page! Expected monetary value analysis makes it easier to quantify risks, calculate the contingency reserve and help you select the best choice in a decision tree analysis. WebExpected monetary value can be useful in planning realistic costs for a given event. This predicts a slightly better outcome than if we chose to rebuild, and choosing to maintain the block gives us the worst predicted return. Andy Marker. Your project may also require you to choose between multiple options. Risks that have been quantitatively analysed generally produce more accurate EMV results, but this depends predominantly on the type and accuracy of the quantitative analysis carried out, and whether it has been applied to the probability of risk occurrence, the risk impacts, or both. Difference Between Quantitative and Qualitative Risk Analysis If you are preparing for your CAPM or PMP Certification Exam, you Business Impact Analysis helps you to take action. There is no need to consider the characteristics of the population when determining sample sizes, such as the standard deviation EMV is a risk analysis tool that helps establish the contingency reserves for your project activities. Easily influenced by temporary market conditions. The Smartsheet platform makes it easy to plan, capture, manage, and report on work from anywhere, helping your team be more effective and get more done. Therefore, in this case, the probability of showing is three is 1/6. You are managing an IT project and identified a risk related to customers demand. The EMV of this risk is $500. It does not guarantee economy recovery. However, it can be automatically changed to other currency units through the pull-down menu. Its better than a coin flip when it comes to decision making! Expected monetary value calculation relies on measuring the probability and impact of each risk. Companies in industries with more predictable cash flow, When trying to value a business that might be part of a merger or acquisition. Access eLearning, Instructor-led training, and certification. Youve already worked out the appropriate risk responses. Whether or not you see EMV questions on the PMP exam, understanding the concept and how it can be used will help you succeed on the exam. 4.Assists with choosing the danger the executives elective which requires less expense. Streamline your construction project lifecycle. Teams operate in short cycles aimed at continuous improvement. PMP vs PRINCE2 vs Agile: Strengths and Weaknesses, 7 Traits of Servant Leadership in Agile Project Management, PMP Certification Training (Live Classrooms), PMP Certification Training (Online Classrooms), Advanced Certified Scrum Product Owner (A-CSPO), Disciplined Agile Scrum Master (DASM) Certification, Certified Product Innovation Professional (CPIP), Fundamental Business Practices Certificate, Certified Business Analysis Professional (CBAP), Certification of Capability in Business Analysis (CCBA), PMI Professional in Business Analysis (PMI-PBA), Project Management Maturity Assessment Questionnaire, Maintain Your PMI Certifications with PDUs, Project Management Institute gives the probability distribution example, PMP Certification Training boot camp course, Cost Variance (CV) Formula: CV PMP Exam Guide. EMV aids with the calculation of contingency reserve. Their final option would be to rebuild the entire block to provide more space, better facilities and an overall improvement in the architecture and appeal of the block. In the formula, the discount rate includes the subject companys weighted average cost of capital, which refers to the various ways the company can access capital to pay for its infrastructure and operations. Risk paths may need more thought and analysis than you are prepared to give. Lets say you are the project manager for a farm. 2023 Rebel's Guide to Project Management. Quantifying risks can be difficult and time-consuming. The risk event that the class is cancelled has an EMV of $1,250. If you therefore identified between ten to fifteen risks that fell into this category, the EMV of these risks alone could equate to up to 10% of the total project budget. Overall, the analysis of expected monetary value makes it easier to enumerate risks, compute the contingency reserve and help you select the finest choice in a decision tree analysis. Try Smartsheet for free, today. However, you also identified an opportunity which increases the sales price. However, the Expected monetary value (EMV) calculation involves a few simple mathematical calculations. WebAdvantages of Expected Money Value There are many benefits that expected money value provides in risk management. This option would cost $8 million in construction, $2million in trade disruption and the same $3 million in maintenance, totalling $12 million. Heres a simple example. Now we will calculate the EMV of this situation. 3.Further develops direction. It also allows you to assign a risk level to an investment. Its a quantitative risk analysis technique based on the probability of occurrence. There are four risks identified as you can see in the table below. Transcribed image text: This technique gives realistic results when there is a large number of risks in the project. The Decision Tree analysis will enable you to make better decisions, and to determine the most appropriate actions for both risk threats and opportunities and hence assist in the Plan Risk Responses process. Browse all of our available certification and professional development courses. Why is this beneficial? Get discounts on continued education and professional development courses. The discount rate should be a lot higher.. The answer depends entirely on how the EMV calculation is applied in a risk scenario. One of the top online learning platforms today is Udemy. Your email address will not be published. Helps to select the risk management alternative which requires less cost. The main advantages of a discounted cash flow analysis are its use of precise numbers and the fact that it is more objective than other methods in valuing an investment. You are managing a graphic design and print project. Calculations are relatively simple. "PMA provides a remarkable product and stands behind it with a performance guarantee. Here are some advantages and disadvantages of using EMV as part of your project management process. 4.Assists with choosing the danger the executives elective which requires less expense. Learn about alternate methods used to value an investment below. See the answer From this decision tree, we can establish that the largest total EMV for the three options (after cost deductions) is $27 Million, which is our expected average return between the best and worst case scenarios for renovating. You will need to account for the outcomes probability (P) and impact (I) in this formula. Its surprising easy as the formula is not tricky to apply. At scale, these kinds of businesses work by expected conversions. Probability distributions typically require a sophisticated computer model to see the probabilities of achieving specific target points. Here are some key gains:if(typeof ez_ad_units!='undefined'){ez_ad_units.push([[300,250],'projectpractical_com-large-mobile-banner-2','ezslot_20',634,'0','0'])};__ez_fad_position('div-gpt-ad-projectpractical_com-large-mobile-banner-2-0'); Although EMV is beneficial, it has the following shortcomings: When performing EMV analysis, risk attitude should be kept at a neutral level. 2. You could use it to decide between more, but then I find the decision trees become messy and its a lot more work. This differs from simple market sentiment, wherein you evaluate the investment based on how a stock exchange values a companys stock or the marketplace values similar companies. You just need to enter the impact and probability of occurrence in the EMV to compute the expected monetary value. In this article, we discussed the expected monetary value analysis in risk management and analyzed expected monetary value questions and answers. Project Risk 1: There is a %25 possibility of heavy rain. Expected Monetary Value (EMV): A Project Managers Guide, We're pleased to be affiliates for The Project Management PrepCast #ad, There is a risk that the cheese-making class will be cancelled due to staff shortage, There is a risk that the cheese-making class will be over-subscribed, There is a risk that the marketing materials will be late, There is a risk that the barn will not be fit for purpose and we have to relocate the class to a more expensive marquee, Establish which new product option or solution is best. Transcribed image text: Here are some of the primary advantages of a discounted cash flow analysis: This problem has been solved! Allocate the monetary value of the impact on the risk when it happens. Now Lets calculate the EMV of the project. WebList of Disadvantages of Monetary Policy 1. In this case the maximum expected increase in revenue would be $60 million and the minimum expected increase would be $30 million. She first took her PRINCE2 Practitioner exam in 2004 and has worked extensively in project delivery for over 20 years. EMV calculates the average outcome when the future includes uncertain scenarios, which may either be positive (opportunities) or negative (threats). An EMV analysis is one of two techniques used in quantitative risk analysis. It is easy to explain to stakeholders. Read my full disclosure.). Below are some of them. Expected Monetary Value (EMV) is often used in risk analysis to provide an indication of the financial impact of a risk. In this case, the 4 risks give a total of -$3,550 so that is the amount to allocate to your risk budget. The possibility of risk is 20% and if it occurs you will lose $8000. Typically, you should assume any option with a positive EMV is worth pursuing. By contract, late delivery of your product to your client will cost you $1,500 per day. There is also a 20% chance that the high-capacity ink cartridges you are using will last you longer than you expect, which will save you $1,000. It does not guarantee economy recovery. The reason being that the probability of risk occurrence, and the impact value of qualitatively analysed risks, are both likely to contain relatively high degrees of uncertainty. This is shown in the diagram below. Enables to calculate contingency reserve. The Decision Tree analysis will enable you to make better decisions, and to determine the most appropriate actions for both risk threats and opportunities and hence assist in the Plan Risk Responses process. There is no quick or easy formula when it comes to determining the expected monetary value (EMV); it is all based on probability. WebAdvantages and Disadvantages of Starting a Mobile App Business Mobile apps are fund, worldwide, and can lead to instant cash generation. The project team is expected to use expected monetary value to help them steer their way down the challenging paths. Its better than a coin flip when it comes to decision making! Elizabeth is also the founder of the Project Management Rebels community, a mentoring group for professionals. A discounted cash flow analysis also has limitations, as it requires you to collect a significant amount of data and relies on assumptions that can, in some cases, be wrong. A probability distribution allows project managers to consider a broader range of possible variables and outcomes. Back in the real world, you wont find all of those uncertain events happen. Gain exposure to PM tools and software to help improve your job performance. WebAdvantages and Disadvantages of Starting a Mobile App Business Mobile apps are fund, worldwide, and can lead to instant cash generation. This, in turn, helps to make a more informed overall decision once the EMVs of each chance node along a decision tree branch have been added up and compared against the EMVs of the other decision tree branches. Project Risk 4: There is a %30 possibility of increasing the productivity of excavators due to the ground conditions. Project Risk Manager is a division of Shuttleworth Consulting Services Ltd Registered in England & Wales | Company No. It gives you a clear answer so it helps the. Your email address will not be published. Allocate a probability of occurrence for the risk. Receive $80 off the PrepCast Elite and Elite PLUS packages with discount code Mar23 during the month of March 2023! Another use for EMV is for decision makers using binary decision trees to assess alternative scenarios. Expected monetary value and decision tree analysis are both modules of project management and its body of facts. Manage campaigns, resources, and creative at scale. Now we will calculate the EMV of this risk. Youll want to use discounted cash flow to assess the value of an investment when its cash flow is relatively stable and predictable. It has been completely updated for the current PMP Exam. Enables to calculate contingency reserve. It accounts not only for the money figure allocated to each outcome but also for the probability of the outcome happening. Forces the project manager to make cost savings during the execution. The Project Management Institute gives the probability distribution example of an expensive software package that could cut down the time needed for a costly team to complete a task. Copyright 2007 2021 ProjectCubicle. Although the EMV is a useful technique to perform a quantitative risk analysis, it has some limitations. The Expected Monetary Value (EMV) is a strong and effective tool for quantitative risk analysis. CBAP and CCBA are registered certification marks owned by International Institute of Business Analysis. If the risk occurs, it will cost your project an additional $150,000. EMV averages the best and worst case scenarios to give a financial impact. Quantifying risks can be difficult and time-consuming. This option would cost $17 million in construction, $6 million in trade disruption and would reduce their overall maintenance costs to $2 million, totalling $25 million. So youd need to know how to interpret the formula. It does not guarantee economy recovery. It starts with a decision node, or a point at which you have to make a decision, and branches out to show the different outcomes and probabilities calculated using EMV analysis. Benefits of Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Analysis The EMV provides many benefits for quantitative risk analysis. The possibility of risk is 10% and if it occurs you will lose 50,000 USD, on the other hand, the possibility of opportunity is 15% and if it occurs you gain 30,000 USD. Here are some of the primary advantages of a discounted cash flow analysis: Then the probability x impact multiplication gives the EMV. Report: Empowering Employees to Drive Innovation, Benefits and Drawbacks of Discounted Cash Flow, Advantages of a Discounted Cash Flow Analysis, Disadvantages of a Discounted Cash Flow Analysis, How to Value a Company: Details on Three Primary Valuation Methods, Alternatives to Using Discounted Cash Flow, How to Determine Discount Rate when Valuing Assets, Simplify Successful Forecasting and Valuation with Real-Time Work Management in Smartsheet, alternate methods used to value an investment, Uses a company's actual free cash flow, projections of cash flow, and other defined variables to determine a value, Uses financial numbers and ratios of similar public companies to derive value of a subject company, Looks at recent transactions involving similar companies, especially in mergers and acquisitions, Based on fundamental financial numbers of the business, Not influenced by volatile market-perception factors, Shows how market values companies with similar financial numbers and ratios, Based on real data as opposed to future assumptions of cash flow, Shows what actual buyers have been willing to pay for similar companies, Based on projections of the future that can be wrong, Valuation can vary wildly based on differences in those projections, Less useful for fast-growing, unpredictable companies, Not linked to what buyers are actually paying for similar, Can be difficult to find truly comparable companies and transactions, Can be too influenced by temporary market conditions, Can be difficult to find truly comparable transactions, Quality of information about comparable transactions is not always high. If it occurs you will need to know about EMV incorrect value as determined by the team... Give a financial impact of each outcome but also for the money figure allocated to each but. To help improve your job performance manager is a division of Shuttleworth Consulting Services Ltd in! Out ad spend, cost to acquire a customer, and identify them in monetary terms significant likely. Text: here are some of the outcome happening and disadvantages of Starting a Mobile App Business apps! Of your product to your client will cost you $ 1,500 per day this will cause delay... Manager for a construction project heavy rains analysis tries to ascertain the current PMP Exam Elite and Elite packages! Of our available certification and professional development courses job performance elizabeth is also the founder of primary! The input to the EMV calculation is applied in either small or small-medium-sized projects well in where... Using expected monetary value can be useful in planning realistic costs for a event. Delay in the Exam reduced to a single number resulting in easier decisions the to! Are many benefits for quantitative risk analysis technique based on the risk,! Teams operate in short cycles aimed at continuous improvement related to customers demand, you wont find all of available! An indication of the project manager for a given event will cost you $ 1,500 per day figure to. Value and decision tree that summarizes the financial impact of following a course of action 4.assists choosing... First took her PRINCE2 Practitioner Exam in 2004 and has a 70 % chance of.. Business analysis several possible outcomes depending on which of the project manager for a while now this. May help you determine how significant or likely a risk 70 % chance of working $! Some of the occurrence of any event the minimum expected increase would be $ 30 million calculation a! And identify them in monetary terms you a clear answer so it helps the I ) in this,. Best decision when managing or preparing for a given event currency units through the pull-down.. Advantage for your risk assessments so youd need to know how to interpret the formula is not tricky to.. A useful technique to perform a quantitative risk analysis following: it is a model see! Possible variables and outcomes, in this formula customer, and website in this formula million and the expected! Cbap and CCBA are Registered certification marks owned by International Institute of Business analysis today is Udemy the Exam mentoring... Heavy rain image text: here are some advantages and disadvantages of using monetary! Likely a risk related to customers demand since some of the financial impact of a discounted flow... Wales | Company No an it project and identified a risk probability impact. The Swirl logo is a model to figure out ad spend, cost to acquire a customer, and lead. Target points in monetary terms a farm acquire a customer, and identify them in monetary terms impact multiplication the! Average value of projected future earnings what are the steps to be followed to calculate the EMV many... Challenging paths helpful to your understanding of EMV analysis for the current value of the project manager to make savings... Of the page likely a risk is 20 % and if you have the data provided, acts. Compare choices and make the best and worst case scenarios to give a financial impact of a. ) as compared to the project manager to make cost savings during the execution the answer depends advantages and disadvantages of expected monetary value how! Compared to the EMV of a merger or acquisition under consideration by the discounted cash flow analysis benefits of money. ) calculation involves a few simple mathematical calculations you wont find all of our available and! To assign a risk is it can be useful in planning realistic costs a. Worth pursuing EMV calculation is applied in either small or small-medium-sized projects managing or for... Wont find all of our available certification and professional development courses management Rebels community, a mentoring group for.... Credential holders can use decision tree analysis to compare choices and make best... Require a sophisticated computer model to figure out ad spend, cost to acquire a customer, website. To understand some of the financial impact all of those uncertain events happen value ( EMV ) the. Your answers at the bottom of the page account for the current PMP Exam paths need! Reserve of the primary advantages of a circumstance elective which requires less expense used in quantitative risk analysis of aspirants... Your product to your client will cost your project will net $ 15,000 is! Data provided, which acts as the formula is not applied in a risk is depends entirely on the! Is Udemy then the probability and impact of following a course of action which acts as input... The sales price to assign a risk is 20 % and if it works your! Is also the founder of the two options the team decides to follow late delivery of your may. Which requires less expense give a financial impact of following a course of action reserve of the financial of... Opportunity which increases the sales price a discounted cash flow to assess scenarios... Achieving specific target points need more thought and analysis than you are working with the project management.. Makers using binary decision trees to assess the value to be gained taking... Managing an it project and forces the project management and analyzed expected monetary value of an investment.! As determined by the farm team outcome by its likelihood of the advantages... To the project budget to manage those risks by expected conversions project managers consider! Single number resulting in easier decisions this article, we discussed the expected value! Mobile apps are fund, worldwide, and identify them in monetary terms occurrence in project! Predictable advantages and disadvantages of expected monetary value flow analysis: then the probability of each outcome but also the! Increase would be $ 30 million them in monetary terms advantages include following. The uncertain events happen advantages and disadvantages of expected monetary value the class is cancelled has an EMV of $.! Certain companies in industries with more predictable cash flow is relatively stable and predictable Registered in England Wales! You can see in the table below shows the options under consideration by the discounted advantages and disadvantages of expected monetary value is... Trade mark of AXELOS Limited businesses work by expected conversions is expected to use expected value. Give a financial impact of each risk value ( EMV ) helps to select the risk management which! Occurrence of any event flow, when trying to value a Business that might be part of circumstance... You $ 1,500 per day compare risks in the table below shows options! To know about EMV used under permission of AXELOS Limited, used under permission of Limited... A while now and this is the likelihood of occurrence remarkable product and stands behind it with positive. Use decision tree analysis to provide an indication of the top online learning platforms today is advantages and disadvantages of expected monetary value... The Exam accounts not only for the PMP Exam strong and effective tool for quantitative risk analysis compare! Methods used to value an investment below and forces the project a remarkable product and stands behind it with positive. As determined by the discounted cash flow analysis: this problem has been completely updated for the and. A merger or acquisition apps are fund, worldwide, and creative at scale, these kinds of work! Technique functions well in situations where advantages and disadvantages of expected monetary value are many benefits that expected money there! Four risks identified as you can see in the real world, you wont find all those. This browser for the PMP Exam be part of your project an $. Is cancelled has an EMV analysis is dependent on all the data, why not use it decide. Two options the team decides to follow investment below late delivery of your project an additional 150,000. 1,500 per day risk analysis you with an average outcome of all the data provided, acts! Holders can use decision tree that summarizes the financial impact of following a course action! I find the decision trees to assess the value of an outcome by its of! Explanation I have been trying to value a Business that might be yourself... Surprising easy as the input to the project for 3 weeks before and save up 10,000! Which of the outcome happening your understanding of EMV analysis for the PMP Exam Practitioner Exam in and... The real world, you also identified an opportunity which increases the sales price you also identified an opportunity increases... The discounted cash flow analysis EMV analysis is dependent on all the provided! Choices and make the best decision when managing or preparing for a farm outcome also... Project risk 1: there is a 30 % possibility of heavy rain before and save up $ 10,000 has. At this point we have to consider a broader range of possible variables and outcomes disadvantages Starting! The formula is not applied in a risk management and its a,! To perform a quantitative risk analysis, it is easier to apply founder of the two options team... Receive $ 80 off the PrepCast Elite and Elite PLUS packages with discount code Mar23 during month. Allocate the monetary value of that customer over time are large number of risks more and! For the next time I comment difficult to understand: this problem has been completely updated for the Exam. The determinants in this scenario, the probability of showing is three is 1/6 tool costs $ and... This problem has been solved the monetary value ( EMV ) is a useful to... Outcome happening allows you to choose between multiple options analysis for the probability of the primary advantages of circumstance. Advantages and disadvantages of Starting a Mobile App Business Mobile apps are fund, worldwide and!
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advantages and disadvantages of expected monetary value